Monday, March 03, 2008

The Case For Hillary

Hillary Clinton is now so toxic in the media that yesterday on Meet The Press, not even James Carville felt compelled to make the case for Hillary.

So let me make it -

This is just a horse race analysis. I will not talk about policy choices or experience or charisma in this post.

The case for Hillary adds up this way.

The first thing is that Hillary has to win in Texas and Ohio. If she does not win both those primaries tomorrow, even the Big Dog admits that she can not continue

The polls show that it is still likely that she will squeak through in Ohio.

Ihe system in Texas is so convoluted, that she should be able to claim some sort of victory in Texas. In other words, if Hillary wins in Ohio, and then wins the direct election part of the Texas primary, she will be able to say that she has won in both states.

Then -- where will we be?

The following states have already held their primaries and will send 100 or more delegates (including superdelegates) to the Democratic National Convention -- (numbers are from Wikipedia)

California (440)
Illinois (185)
Massachusetts (121)
Michigan (157)
Florida (210)
New York (281)
Virginia (101)

Ohio (161) and Texas (228) will vote tomorrow, and they will each send more than 100 delegates to the convention

On April 22, 2008 -- Pennsylvania votes (158 delegates)
On May 6, 2008 -- North Carolina votes (115)

Hillary lost in Illinois -- Senator Obama's homestate.
Hillary lost in Virginia -- which barely makes our survey.

She won in the other 5 states. If she wins in Ohio and Texas tomorrow, she will have won in 7 of the 8 largest states. (Oops, forgot to count Virginia)

Doesn't Hillary deserve to see what happens in Pennsylvania and North Carolina?

(B-- How can you include Michigan or Florida? Well she won them. Maybe not fair and square -- but if Obama gets credit for being faster off the mark with the caucuses, why shouldn't Hillary get credit for wanting to beat the Republicans so badly that she would do anything to win those two large states? You know they'll seat someone.)

So the argument is that she can lose those 11 straight primaries with those diddley vote totals (607 for the 11 states. California and New York together -- 721). She can lose to Obama in all those states west of the Mississippi where no Democrat will ever beat a Republican in November anyway.

The argument is that Hillary can win the big states, and Obama can't.

Not against Hillary, and not against anyone else.


So, the argument gets a little nastier, a little more subjective. And it's based on things I read, and what I'm being told, and my experience answering, well not the red phone, but the pundit phone, at 3 in the morning (the dark hour of the soul) for a long long time now.

If some how or other, Hillary does find a way to the nomination, all the Obama supporters go home. They will not vote in November. The 2008 election looks a lot like Bush-Gore. If we're lucky. Maybe the Democrat squeaks through in Florida this time.

If Obama wins the nomination, then people younger than 50 who voted for Clinton will most likely vote for Obama.

However, a significant number of the voters over 50 (maybe even over 40 for women) who voted for Hillary will vote against Obama. And in Ohio and in Pennsylvania and in Florida and in Michigan, and in Virginia, those voters will tip their respective states -- and the election --- to the Republican.