"In Search of The Elusive Swing Voter" Atlantic Monthly --- January/ February 2004.

The author, Joshua Green, admits they are few and far between. A good deal of the article concerns itself with the fact that computerized research is now so sophisticated that they can find these swing voters in the midst of regions where they are in the minority. He also speaks a lot about get out the vote efforts. He says that only 12 states can be said to be in play:

Oregon
Washington

(These states should not really be in play, but Nader could siphon off Democrat strength to Bush)

Arizona
Nevada
New Mexico

(Hispanic population growth means that former Republican states can go Democrat)

Ohio
Pennsylvania
West Virginia

(Industrial job losses can make these culturally conservative states bite the bullet and vote Democrat again. The author does not mention, but I can, that these states are always somewhat in play. It may be said that the most important state in Presidential politics is Pennsylvania or Illinois)

Florida

(Latinos upset about Elian Gonzalez vote Republican, but could swing back to traditional Democrat)

New Hampshire

Minnesota
Wisconsin
Illinois
Iowa
Missouri

(The article didn't say precisely why. The implication being that there are pockets of people who could be motivated to vote Democrat if they could be reached.

Key paragraph


That's 13 -- I think that either Minnesota or Illinois is not considered a state in play.

Of course in the article, he also adds

Arkansas (since it went for Clinton, I don't think he thinks that Bush would really lose Arkansas)